India's National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon arrived in Beijing yesterday. By schedule, he is going to meet a host of important Chinese leaders during the two-day visit, also, it is the first time for a senior Indian official to have direct contact with the new Chinese leaders. Menon also doubles up as India's Special Representative (SR) on border talks with China and will be holding talks with his Chinese counterpart State Councilor Dai Bingguo, who is retiring in March 2013.
According to senior Indian diplomats, the Menon-Dai talks will not be characterized as formal talks. Instead, Menon's brief is to explore the thinking of the new Chinese leadership on the border and other bilateral issues and touch base with the new leadership. Menon's China visit will also be a farewell to Dai with whom he has held many rounds of boundary talks.
Menon's parleys with his Chinese interlocutors are likely to result in important take-aways for both sides. During their informal discussions, the two SRs are expected to thrash out a kind of progress report of the boundary talks held so far. Menon may also meet one or two of the seven new members of the newly-drafted Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee.
Menon's talks with Dai are expected to focus on a broad framework which the two countries have been trying to thrash out during their previous rounds under the SR mechanism. This will largely be an informal and exploratory exercise wherein the framework's broad contours would be discussed.
Both India and China have conveyed to each other their satisfaction with the boundary talks. India and China have so far held 15 rounds of talks, the last 10 of which have been held by SRs since they was put in place in 2003. In 2008, after five rounds of talks, the two sides signed an agreement on the political parameters and guiding principles for settling the boundary dispute.
Menon himself has taken cognizance of this phase-by-phase approach by the two sides when he went on record saying this in New Delhi last week: "We are in the process of agreeing on a framework to settle the boundary and the next step, hopefully the third stage, is to actually agree on a boundary. Right now we are at the second stage."
The last round of Sino-Indian border talks, held in New Delhi in January this year threw up another concrete deliverable when the two sides set up the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs. The new mechanism at the level of senior diplomats is essentially an additional safeguard to maintain peace and tranquility along the Line of Actual Control between India and China. The first meeting under this new mechanism was held in January itself when the two SRs held talks.
Days before Menon's departure for Beijing, the second meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs was held in New Delhi on November 29 and 30.
At the second meeting of the new mechanism at the level of senior diplomats and security officials, the two sides reviewed in a cordial, constructive and cooperative atmosphere the developments in the India-China border areas since the first meeting of the mechanism in January.
The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) released a brief statement at the end of this meeting saying that the two sides acknowledged with satisfaction that peace and tranquility continued to be maintained due to the joint efforts of the two countries. "The two delegations also exchanged ideas on additional measures for maintaining peace and tranquility as well as further steps to build greater trust and confidence between the two sides. The two delegations welcomed the recent liberalization of border trade across Nathu La, which has led to a significant increase in the volume of trade," the MEA statement said.
China and India are two of the top three economies of Asia. Their bilateral trade is hovering around the $100 billion mark and some experts believe that it could reach $300 billion in a decade.
The two nuclear-armed and most populous nations on earth cannot afford to repeat the mistake of half a century ago when they fought a brief war on the boundary issue. The sooner they find a peaceful long-term resolution, the better.
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